Saturday, March 8, 2014

Thoughts on the Electric Car's future

    Some retrospective revisiting on this subject matter.  First, I'd mention having seen a recent film 'What killed the electric car'.  A few months ago, and while having heard some of the arguments provided concerning why the electric at times went through some decline in terms of use, it seems the film's arguments provided weren't enough in my mind having mustered clear reason for decline.  While the argument that generally most electric car range capacities are poor relative to gas fuel types are true (e.g, average electric cars if that might have around 86 miles before needing a recharge versus a gas car type having a several hundred mile range), and while re fueling times are much more compared to gas one's (e.g., even with fast charging charges could take in many typical cases around seven hours at best for refueling, compared with a refuel time in a gas type in a few minutes), solutions to these problems appeared to be neither the focus or intent of the documentary's director at that time, or at least I hadn't recalled any significant pursuit by the film's director in pursuit to these problems, other then having focused at a glance to the nature of battery technologies themselves...which up until now and likely into the future, focus much about the capacity constraints of the batteries in the volumetric and mass sense, alongside the battery's recharging characteristics which are likely to be problematic well into the future...although it seems I read somewhere that some designs allowed for potential recharging in around twenty minutes which should be far better then the hours mentioned before.

    While it appears Tesla motors has had a head start over its competitors over the range capacity of their given electric car (at least in one case with a range of approximately 380 miles), other manufacturer have been short in following suit, and then Tesla's car were much more expensive sporty car running likely beyond the means or desire of those more budget minded.  As it turns out even the least expensive electric car is likely to cost one 18,000 + U.S.D, and more likely this would be in the mid twenty thousand u.s. dollar range.   As to the benefits of the car itself.  If you were a short range commuter with predictable enough car usage for a given day, and hadn't relied on your car for extensive trips (e.g., business travel, delivery, and so forth), you'd find the electric probably great for your needs.  Although you might not do as well, planning spontaneous trips of any significant out of town distance, or likely you might be flying anyways.  If you had a family, obviously more ride sharing occupants would potentially cut into travel range, and this could be more problematic...the electric car might also be something that you had with a back up gas type nearby in case you had more trip planning to do for an unexpected given day.  So having solely an electric car might be a more worrisome prospect for some (especially given downtime for re fueling).  Even all this being said, I'd say the electric car still holds promise for a number of reasons.  Here are few things to consider:

1.  The electric car ounce for ounce has some nice advantages relative to the fuel car type.  Since you hadn't need haul a miniature power plant with you every where you went, automatically should raise fuel efficiency standards (the exchange of mass for battery to smaller electric engine I believe reduces overall mass load of the car, which means less power to deliver kinetically), and secondly the power generated (even from the dirtier of power plants) is likely to be more efficiently and cleanly generated relative to usage in a typical gas type (afterall, plants have workers and technicians that are there to maintain and look after a given power plant in terms of it efficiency in electrical power generation)...this isn't to say that some car owners are meticulous enough in exceeding the standards provided at a larger scale municipal source, but that the average car owner likely doesn't pay attention at the same levels means that inefficiencies are likely to build in a gas car type power plant relative to the larger scale industrial types.  Then prospectively future power plants could look only brighter in terms of efficiency and cleanness in terms as long as technology remains progressive here.

2.  Most people likely don't drive more then 80 miles in a day.  Thus even a primary commuter, the electric is fine outside of it perceptively limiting aspects.  We just like the idea of having more that we don't necessarily need?!

3.  Fast Car battery swap technology.  While I've mentioned in the past ideas like fast battery swapping systems, that apparently as in one 2013 case went broke as an investment, shouldn't render the idea dead either.  Anyway, the idea of the fast swapping battery system at least solves part of the range time spent refueling problem...while at a glance I couldn't comment on the investment strategies in detail, perhaps, investment capital devotion solely to swapable technology to the exclusion of the thrust of the electric car market was a big mistake...that is, over investment of swapable batteries (for reserve) without a fleet of EV (electric vehicles) for supply was part of this mistake, alongside poor consumer education.  Tesla at least liked the idea of the fast swap battery and integrated this design into at least one of its car types...if Tesla has invested anything into the idea of EV refueling (battery swap) station this would be far more modest to thrust of its main market which is to satiate the needs of the consumer which uses the car and primarily handle an EV's recharging.  It seems that eventually modest investment  in building swap battery infrastructure could lead to the eventual outcome that more consumers are educated well enough to utilize this type of fuel infrastructure solving the inherent time to refuel problem which were noted as taking around '90' seconds, or in other words, less time spent refueling relative to filling up a gas car.  It seems reasonable that an 86 mile ranged car consumer might be willing to pay around $15 for a new fully charged electric battery swap.  And then this could lead to an added benefit of cost liabilities insurance system for batteries...consumers would generally have one less liability to worry about for the given lifetime of the car which could be likely the first to wear out and deteriorate which were the battery (and this likely is a big cost liability).  The key is excellent consumer use forecasting to determine how many EV users in a given location would need to use and access swap technology.

4.  Road integrated power transmission systems.  It seems when I lived up in Seattle there were any number of electric buses already operating daily through the city.  Of course, I weren't exactly sure if the buses had on board extensive battery systems, but I were sure that they had a power supply source, namely electric cables built up over the roads that allowed for the buses to access these via a tethered link system.  It seems if something correspondingly could be developed safely for EV consumers (whether wirelessly transmitted or a linked wired system) that another problem of continuous power could be solved.  Namely integrating power systems into our roadways hadn't exactly seemed entirely out of the ordinary, and generally given EV's onboard batteries where consumers traveled off grid shouldn't mean that all roadways need be electrified.  Analogously, while the internet hadn't solely depended on FIOS investments from individual corporations/businesses alone to grow the entirety of it system in terms of network growth, here governmental investments have played much role here, the same could be said for the advocacy of power lines built into our given roadway systems (e.g., interstates and secondary highway system, alongside urban/suburban/rural roadways).

What killed the electric car?  In the past, honestly, it were the will power of industries, not the nature of the technology that were inherently flawed here as I see it.  In any event, I hadn't seen any reason why the EV couldn't have the same types of unlimited ranges that gas types are given (with refueling capabilities) and/or that the EV couldn't be better then gas types in terms of economy of fuel and time spent traveling.    

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